At the start of January, Georgia Power customers overwhelmed a utility bill assistance program within the first 10 minutes of enrollment, following a rate hike that took effect with the new year. Unfortunately, these financial shocks could have been avoided - Greenlink has been sounding the alarm for years.
Back in 2017, as Georgia Power faced escalating costs from its Vogtle nuclear plant, Greenlink Analytics was closely tracking the utility’s financial trajectory. Using data, historical insights, financial forecasting, we predicted that rates would spike—and that’s exactly what has happened.
Since 2022, Georgia Power’s regulatory body, the Public Service Commission, (PSC) has approved three rate hikes: 12% in 2022 to cover Vogtle’s new reactors, another 12% in June 2023 for fuel costs, and 6% in December 2024 for Vogtle’s Unit 3 construction, according to the Georgia Recorder. That’s a $43/month increase for the average customer, or over $500 a year. These costs strain some households and cripple others.
Let’s walk you through how we predicted these hikes and why Georgia Power customers could’ve been spared with cleaner more efficient energy choices.
The Background: A Utility Seeking to Hike Costs
By 2017, Georgia Power was reeling from major cost overruns at Plant Vogtle. The nuclear project ended up being $17 billion over budget thanks to delays, bankruptcies, and design issues. We saw early on that Georgia Power would need rate hikes to recover rising construction costs, beyond the first-of-a-kind “prepay” charges Georgia Power had collected before the plant was online.
Our forecast? We had strong reasons to believe Georgia Power would seek significant rate increases in their 2019 Rate Case, especially after being denied a rate increase in 2016 as a condition of the Southern Company and Atlanta Gas Light merger. With these factors in mind, we predicted a 40% rate hike, assuming there were no further Vogtle cost overruns.
But here's the key: Georgia Power had a history of underestimating costs, especially with major infrastructure projects. So, we didn’t just settle on a 40% increase. We ran a series of scenarios factoring in uncertainties, worst-case outcomes, and potential cost overruns. The result? A 40-50% rate increase over the next five years seemed the most likely scenario. And that’s what occurred.
Data Doesn’t Lie: A 40-50% Rate Hike Became Reality
Fast forward to 2025, and Georgia Power customers are feeling the pain. Over five years, rates have jumped 40-50%, impacting millions of residential and business customers. But the real issue isn’t just the hikes, it’s the lack of forward-thinking investments in energy efficiency and clean energy. While Georgia Power was pushing forward with costly projects like Vogtle, it missed opportunities to invest in cost-effective energy-saving solutions that could have lowered bills for everyone.
At the time, Greenlink was also focused on addressing energy burden issues, which disproportionately affect low-income households in the Southeast. One of the reasons these issues persist is that utilities like Georgia Power haven’t invested enough in energy efficiency and clean energy solutions, despite the availability of cost-effective solutions. The key lesson here? Smart investments in energy efficiency and clean energy could have eased the financial burden on Georgia Power customers. Georgia Power should have prioritized inexpensive options like demand-side solutions (like shifting energy use to off-peak hours), efficiency programs, and renewable energy sources like solar and wind.
As our CEO Matt Cox testified before the Public Service Commission in the 2017 Vogtle Testimony, 2019 rate case testimony (read the full testimony here) and the 2022 Integrated Resource Plan testimony, these investments could have lowered rates, reduced the energy burden on low-income households, and helped Georgia make real progress on climate action. It’s a case of data showing the future, but also a missed chance to do things differently.
The Takeaway: Data Analysis Can Guide Smarter Decisions
This story isn’t just about forecasting future trends, it’s about how data can guide better policy decisions. Our analysis predicted Georgia Power’s costs would have doubled in five years, highlighting that their path wasn’t sustainable. A cleaner, more efficient approach could have kept rates lower and reduced the burden on customers.
What needs to change? Utilities, regulators, and lawmakers must take a more proactive approach to energy policy. The PSC should have pushed Georgia Power to invest more in demand-side solutions, not just infrastructure. While rates would have still risen due to Vogtle issues, they could have increased much less.
This isn’t about saying “We told you so.” It’s about learning from the past and making better, data-driven choices moving forward. If we do that, we can save money, cut emissions, and create a fairer energy system for everyone.
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